Monthly Forex Market Forecast; Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen

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Monthly Forex Market Forecast; Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen

The FOMC Is On Tap

The FOMC is going to be a mega-market mover next week when it decides to cut rates, or not. The market has a lot of expectations built into the meeting and one of them is aggressive rate cuts, as many as three by the end of the year. In my opinion this is far too many, one may be enough and even it may be too many. The U.S. data is still strong, the cause for concern is the trade war and right now its impact is not as bad as feared. The only reason I can see for a cut is slowing and sluggish inflation but even that isn’t a huuuge problem. Lower prices are good for investment and may end up stimulating the economy on their own.

What does this means for the dollar? Over the next week volatility, and then next week more volatility but probably in a single direction. I think that direction will be up for the DXY because I just don’t believe the FOMC is going to be as dovish as the market thinks. The EUR/USD is consolidating near a long-term low. The indicative factor is that the pair is consolidating below the 150 day EMA and a support target, now a resistance line. A fall from this level driven by USD strength/the FOMC would confirm a down trend that began last year. If so, my target for the EUR/USD would be 1.040 over the next 6-8 months. The risks are the ECB and what they do, the ECB is on a path to tighten but their data is equally iffy in that regard.

The GBP/USD is likewise consolidating at a significant low. This low is concurrent with a low set earlier in the year, if broken it would signify a major breakdown in the pound market. The indicators are inconclusive at this time, they might be set up to fire a bearish signal, they might be set up to show a bound from support, it just depends on the FOMC. Also, the new PM is expected any day now, whomever it is they choose to replace May will also have an affect on the pound. Later, the BOE is set to meet in the first week of August and may themselves surprise the market. The UK economy is wobbly and may need some shoring up, if so the GBP/USD is sure to fall through support to 1.200.

Euro (EUR) Forecast & Predictions

Euro exchange rate forecasting strategies

Did you know the eurozone (the 19 countries who use the euro as a currency) is actually the world’s 2nd largest economy? 1 In recent years, the European Union (EU) has faced considerable challenges, and the AUD/EUR exchange rate has fluctuated substantially in the last ten years from a high over A$2.00 to a low of A$1.10.

Please keep in mind that OFX does not provide personal advice or specific exchange rate forecasts and predictions; however, here are some general considerations you can use when evaluating forecasts and making your own decisions regarding the best time to transfer your money internationally.

Some key considerations in EUR forecasting

When attempting to forecast the movement of the AUD/EUR exchange rate, investors may take into account these eurozone-specific factors:

  • The globalisation backlash. In this era of peak globalisation, many advanced economies–including the U.S. and U.K.–have witnessed rising opposition amongst the population in regard to current policies. Any attempt made by politicians to revise current labour and trade agreements could profoundly affect the euro forecast. According to Fidelity Investments, “anti-globalisation policies may boost labour costs, spur inflation, and put pressure on profit margins.” When considering an international money transfer, some people choose to pay attention to upcoming elections, referendums, and anticipated policy announcements, as they could have powerful effects on trade balances and the AUD/EUR forecast.
  • The sovereign debt crisis. It began with Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland, but the sovereign debt crisis triggered by the 2008-2009 global financial meltdown is still sending shockwaves through the eurozone. As of 2020, the world’s oldest bank, Banco Monte Dei Paschi in Italy, is in dire need of a bailout due to 360 billion euros worth of bad loans to small Italian businesses battered by recession. 2 The conflict is a trifecta of uncertainty: constituents in non-indebted countries are tired of bailing out their neighbours, Italy has the 3rd largest GDP in Europe, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) doesn’t expect Italy’s economy to recover to pre-2008 levels until sometime around 2025. That said, the eurozone still boasts some of the world’s biggest and best-known companies with really reliable balance sheets (think Daimler, Airbus, L’Oreal, and Unilever.) That’s why it’s important to take into account the diversity of the eurozone environment when reviewing euro forecasts.
  • The German economy. Germany is the 3rd largest export economy in the world; it is simultaneously the world’s 3rd largest importer. 3 It’s major export is cars, and its manufacturing sector drives the European economy (pun totally intended). The German Chancellor is one of the most influential people in the EU, so some people may wish to keep an eye on Germany when deciding the best time to transfer money overseas.
  • Speculation. Professional currency traders attempting to tap into investor sentiment can play a key role in driving EUR movements. A prime example of this came during the 2020 U.K. referendum on EU membership, known as Brexit, when the pound sterling (GBP) hit a 30-year low against the U.S. dollar. Part of the pound’s decline was based on concerns that it would no longer attract capital flows from abroad. Similarly, a tense immigration situation in many member states, concerns of terrorism in France, and the resurgence of far right political candidates may sway investor perceptions and the subsequent euro forecasts.

Currency markets can be fickle, and it can be difficult to determine the best time for your overseas money transfer. At OFX, we offer a number of risk management tools to help you make the most of your money. If you’re ready to make an overseas money transfer, you should know that big banks charge big margins on foreign exchange transactions, often up to 5%. Instead, register with OFX and lock in a great rate and find out why thousands of people around the world trust OFX to complete their international money transfers.

Read about our exchange rate forecasting article and general macroeconomic factors to consider.

British Pound/Japanese Yen (^GBPJPY)

Barchart offers historical data through Barchart OnDemand. Barchart OnDemand provides both premium market data delivery through a collection of web services APIs (JSON, XML and CSV formats) and a limited free service. For more information, please visit: Barchart OnDemand: www.barchart.com/ondemand

You can also contact Barchart Sales at 866-333-7587 or [email protected] for more information or additional options about historical market data.

End-of-Day historical data is available for up to two years prior to today’s date.

For more data, Barchart Premier members can download more historical data (going back to Jan. 1, 1980) and can download Intraday, Daily, Weekly, Monthly or Quarterly data on the Historical Download tab. Additional underlying chart data and study values can be downloaded using the Interactive Charts.

New Highs

5-Day 5 times -0.29% 1-Month 1 time -1.56% 3-Month 5 times -6.82% 6-Month 12 times -8.71% YTD 4 times -6.82% 52-Week 4 times -8.71% 2-Year 4 times -12.21% 3-Year 12 times -13.98% 5-Year 10 times -31.22% 10-Year 15 times -31.22% 20-Year 26 times -46.35%

New Lows

5-Day 2 times +2.06% 1-Month 6 times +8.79% 3-Month 17 times +8.79% 6-Month 5 times +8.79% YTD 13 times +8.79% 52-Week 36 times +8.79% 2-Year 31 times +8.79% 3-Year 6 times +8.51% 5-Year 13 times +10.19% 10-Year 5 times +15.31% 20-Year 7 times +15.31%

Stocks: 15 20 minute delay (Cboe BZX is real-time), ET. Volume reflects consolidated markets. Futures and Forex: 10 or 15 minute delay, CT.

© 2020 Barchart.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The Price History page allows you to view end-of-day price history (up to two years prior to today’s date), view the latest trades, view corporate actions (U.S. equities only.)

Barchart Premier Members may also download additional data using the “Historical Data” page, where you can download Intraday, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, or Quarterly data.

  • Intraday data is available, down to 1-minute increments, approximately 10 years prior to today’s date.
  • Daily data is available back to 01/01/2000.
  • Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly data is available back to 01/01/1980 (depending on the symbol).
Daily Prices

Non-registered users may view daily price information for any symbol that Barchart carries. Historical data is available for up to two years prior to today’s date (use the calendars at the top of the page to enter your date selection.) In addition, you can adjust price history for dividends (check the Dividend Adjust box). My Barchart members may download the data to a .csv file for use in 3rd party spreadsheet programs.

Latest Trades

This tab is accessible for My Barchart and Barchart Premier Members. Available for U.S. and Canadian equities, Futures and Forex symbols, the Latest Trades tab displays the last 50 trades for the symbol. Registered site users may download the data to a .csv file.

Sale Conditions for NYSE / NYSE Arca symbols:

  • @ – Regular Sale
  • BLANK – No Sale Condition required within (Long Trade format only)
  • C – Cash Trade (Same Day Clearing)
  • E – Automatic Execution
  • F – InterMarket Sweep Order
  • H – Price Variation Trade
  • I – Odd Lot Trade
  • K – Rule 127 (NYSE Only) or Rule 155 (Amex Only)
  • L – Sold Last (Late Reporting)
  • M – Market Center Official Close
  • N – Next Day Trade (Next Day Clearing)
  • O – Market Center Opening Trade
  • P – Prior Reference Price
  • Q – Market Center Official Open
  • R – Seller
  • T – Extended Hours Trade
  • U – Extended Hours Sold (Out of Sequence)
  • V – Contingent Trade
  • X – Cross Trade
  • Z – Sold (out of sequence)
  • 4 – Derivatively Priced
  • 5 – Market Center Reopening Trade
  • 6 – Market Center Closing Trade
  • 7 – Qualified Contingent Trade
  • 8 – Reserved
  • 9 – Corrected Consolidated Close Price as per Listing Market

Sale Conditions for Nasdaq symbols:

  • @ – Regular Sale
  • A – Acquisition
  • B – Bunched Trade
  • C – Cash Sale
  • D – Distribution
  • E – Placeholder for future use
  • F – InterMarket Sweep
  • G – Bunched Sold Trade
  • H – Price Variation Trade
  • I – Odd Lot Trade
  • K – Rule 155 Trade (NYSE Arca)
  • L – Sold Last
  • M – Market Center Official Close
  • N – Next Day
  • O – Opening Prints
  • P – Prior Reference Price
  • Q – Market Center Official Open
  • R – Seller
  • S – Split Trade
  • T – Form T
  • U – Extended trading hours (Sold Out of Sequence)
  • V – Stock-Option Trade
  • W – Average Price Trade
  • X – Cross Trade
  • Y – Yellow Flag Regular Trade
  • Z – Sold (out of Sequence)
  • 1 – Stopped Stock (Regular Trade)
  • 4 – Derivatively Priced
  • 5 – Re-Opening Prints
  • 6 – Closing Prints
  • 8 – Placeholder for 611 Exempt
  • 9 – Corrected Consolidated Close (per listing market)
Corporate Actions

This tab is accessible for My Barchart and Barchart Premier members. The Corporation Actions tab shows stock splits, dividends and earnings. Corporate Actions are available only for U.S. and Canadian equities. In addition, My Barchart members see the last two years’ of data, where Barchart Premier members will see corporate actions going back to January 1, 2000.

Data Updates

For pages showing Intraday views, we use the current session’s data, with new price data appear on the page as indicated by a “flash”. Stocks: 15 minute delay (Cboe BZX data for U.S. equities is real-time), ET. Volume reflects consolidated markets. Futures and Forex: 10 or 15 minute delay, CT.

The list of symbols included on the page is updated every 10 minutes throughout the trading day. However, new stocks are not automatically added to or re-ranked on the page until the site performs its 10-minute update.

Page Sort

Pages are initially sorted in a specific order (depending on the data presented). You can re-sort the page by clicking on any of the column headings in the table.

Views

Most data tables can be analyzed using “Views.” A View simply presents the symbols on the page with a different set of columns. Site members can also display the page using Custom Views. (Simply create a free account, log in, then create and save Custom Views to be used on any data table.)

Each View has a “Links” column on the far right to access a symbol’s Quote Overview, Chart, Options Quotes (when available), Barchart Opinion, and Technical Analysis page. Standard Views found throughout the site include:

    Main View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Change, Percent Change, High, Low, Volume, and Time of Last Trade.

Technical View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Today’s Opinion, 20-Day Relative Strength, 20-Day Historic Volatility, 20-Day Average Volume, 52-Week High and 52-Week Low.

Performance View: Symbol, Name, Last Price, Weighted Alpha, YTD Percent Change, 1-Month, 3-Month and 1-Year Percent Change.

  • Fundamental View: Available only on equity pages, shows Symbol, Name, Weighted Alpha, Market Cap, P/E Ratio. Earnings Per Share, Beta, Return on Equity, and Price/Sales
  • Data Table Expand

    Unique to Barchart.com, data tables contain an “expand” option. Click the “+” icon in the first column (on the left) to “expand” the table for the selected symbol. Scroll through widgets of the different content available for the symbol. Click on any of the widgets to go to the full page.

    Horizontal Scroll on Wide Tables

    Especially when using a custom view, you may find that the number of columns chosen exceeds the available space to show all the data. In this case, the table must be horizontally scrolled (left to right) to view all of the information. To do this, you can either scroll to the bottom of the table and use the table’s scrollbar, or you can scroll the table using your browser’s built-in scroll:

    • Left-click with your mouse anywhere on the table.
    • Use your keyboard’s left and right arrows to scroll the table.
    • Repeat this anywhere as you move through the table to enable horizontal scrolling.
    FlipCharts

    Also unique to Barchart, FlipCharts allow you to scroll through all the symbols on the table in a chart view. While viewing FlipCharts, you can apply a custom Chart Template, further customizing the way you can analyze the symbols. FlipCharts are a free tool available to Site Members.

    Download

    Download is a free tool available to Site Members. This tool will download a .csv file for the View being displayed. For dynamically-generated tables (such as a Stock or ETF Screener) where you see more than 1000 rows of data, the download will be limited to only the first 1000 records on the table. For other static pages (such as the Russell 3000 Components list) all rows will be downloaded.

    Free members are limited to 5 downloads per day, while Barchart Premier Members may download up to 100 .csv files per day.

    Should you require more than 100 downloads per day, please contact Barchart Sales at 866-333-7587 or email [email protected] for more information or additional options about historical market data.

    New Highs

    This widget shows the number of times this symbol reached a new high price for specific periods, from the past 5-Days to the past 20-Years.

    For each period, the “Percent From Last” column shows you where the current price is in relationship to the High price for that period. When negative, the current price is that much lower than the highest price reported for the period. When positive, the current price is that much higher than the highest price from that period.

    New Lows

    This widget shows the number of times this symbol reached a new low price for specific periods, from the past 5-Days to the past 20-Years.

    For each period, the “Percent From Last” column shows you where the current price is in relationship to the Low price for that period. When positive, the current price is that much higher than the lowest price from that period. When negative, the current price is that much lower than the lowest price reported for the period.

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