Claimant Count Change – How it affects markets

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Claimant Count Change – How it affects markets

One of the most successful and followed strategies for binary options, as you can see in our pages, is the one on the economic calendar with 5 minutes expiration. Among the several indicators which are published on the calendar, there is the one about the Claimant Count Change, which affects the currency to which it refers, such as GBP, and is a three bulls indicator, decidedly an important one. Let’s try to understand what does it mean and how to interpret this indicator in order to independently extrapolate a signal from its publishing.

The Claimant Count Change represents the benefits given to the unemployed people, so if the number of benefits increase it means that the number of unemployed people increased too and this growth represents a negative datum for the economy of the Country. On the contrary if this datum decreases, this means that the number of unemployed people is decreasing too and so this diminution of benefits for unemployment represents a positive datum for the economy of the Country.

We should pay attention to how the data are published on the economic calendars with reference to the Claimant Count Change indicator. In order not to fall in unclear situations about the use of terms such as variation, bullish, higher, better, worse, bearish, lower, here is a sort of graph in which are shown two situations that really occurred (one on the 22 nd of January 2020 and the other one today, 19 th of February 2020), which will be clearer than a thousand words.

Let’s compare two publications of Claimant Count Change, one of the 22 nd of January and the other one on the 19 th of February to see what happened to the Forex couple GBP/USD

Please note that in both cases there is also the unemployment rate and the graph behaves exactly as indicated by it:

  • § The unemployment rate decreases ->GBP/USD upward
  • § The unemployment rate increases -> GBP/US downward

The information shown are the result of personal experiences I share here on the blog and don’t want to incite anybody to invest online.

You can come to your close and comment on, if you like.

Claimant Count Change. United Kingdom, 11:30 (GMT+2)

The indicator reflects changes in the number of unemployed in the UK for a specified month. The growth trend indicates a weakness in the labor market and has a negative impact on consumer spending and, consequently, on economic growth. The indicator above the forecast negatively affects GBP, while the data below the forecast is a positive indicator for the national currency. It is predicted that the figure will drop to 12.3K from 20.8K a month earlier.

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The indicator reflects changes in the level of average wages, taking into account the prem.

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The index determines the mood of institutional investors and is the main indicator of cond.

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The Euro (EUR) inched lower against the Great Britain Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, decreasing the price of EURGBP to less than 0.8500 ahead of the Britain’s claimant count change news. The technical bias has turned bullish after the emergence of bullish pin bar candle yesterday.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the pair is being traded near 0.8486. A support can be noted around 0.8480 (an immediate trendline support) ahead of 0.8463 (a key trendline support level on daily timeframe) and then 0.8400 (the psychological level).

On the upside, a hurdle may be noted around 0.8535 (the short term horizontal resistance area) ahead of 0.8542 (the 38.2% fib level) and then 0.8550 (the psychological number) as demonstrated in the given above hourly chart. The technical bias shall remain bullish as long as the 0.8400 support area is intact.

UK Claimant Count Change

The U.K. claimant count change rose unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Wednesday. In a report, Office for National Statistics said that U.K. claimant count change rose to a seasonally adjusted 25.5K, from -6.1K in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -11.3K. Analysts had expected U.K. claimant count change to fall -3.0K last month.

What Assets to Trade after Today

In addition to EURGBP, trading GBPCAD, GBPAUD and GBPUSD can be a good strategy as the aforementioned pairs are highly reactive to the Britain’s economic news.

Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the pair around current levels can be a good strategy in short to medium term.

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